U.S.-China Trade

This Thursday morning in Beijing, China and Taiwan came to the table for talks to mutually  build confidence despite more than a decade of tense and untrusting exchanges. The last formal talks to take place between Beijing and Taipei occurred in 1999. Facilitating this dialogue was Taiwan’s Straits Exchange Foundation and its Mainland Chinese counterpart.

The first day of the two-day meeting brought an agreement by both parties to participate in a program that will establish offices in each others’ jurisdictions. The Taiwanese Foundation’s Deputy Secretary-General Pang Chien-Kuo says that these offices will be permanent, and that the welcome mat on each side of the divide will open the lines for freer business transactions and “facilitate people’s exchanges and traveling across the Strait.”

Representing their home teams are:

Chiang Pin-Kung, Chairman of the Straits Exchange Foundation for Taiwan. Chiang is leading a 19-member team with the highest-ranking Taiwanese officials recorded to participate in bilateral discussions. As talks were underway, Chiang forecasted that any agreements made would provide the framework for ”a long-term peaceful relationship between the two sides.”

Chen YunLin, Head of Beijing’s Semiofficial Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait.  A more tentative Mainland “Semiofficial” body has been sent to advocate for Beijing’s administration, which still vehemently refuses to recognize Taipei as an individual, autonomous government. China’s dismissal of Taiwanese independence means that its side of negotiations must be represented by semiofficial bodies. Chen’s sentiment on the productivity of the talks is less optimistic:  ”Whether cross-strait relations can improve, depends on whether our negotiations can proceed smoothly.”

Despite a history of hostility over the debate on Taiwan’s independence, both sides agree that political opinions can be temporarily sidelined for the prospect of financial opportunity. Fostering growing trade and investment both ways is a bigger priority, with China having absorbed more than $100 billion in Taiwanese investment in the past 15 years. Although the majority of Taiwanese are staunchly opposed to One China, most also understand the dependency of the island’s economy relies heavily on the Mainland.

It is expected that an agreement will be signed on Friday, allowing 36 charter flights to cross the Taiwan Strait every weekend, an activity that has been banned since the 1949 division. The prediction is that these flights will provide access to several hundred thousand Chinese tourists to Taiwan every year, a number which is significantly higher than the current 80,000. On the flip-side, planes to China are typically filled with Taiwanese visiting family members in the Mainland.

Other factors prodding the two countries together for a sit-down may include:

• Sichuan’s recent earthquake, to which Taiwan has responded, offering assistance
• The highly-politicized 08 games, its context which China is eager to neutralize
• An upcoming US administration change, which will likely favor a candidate sympathetic to Taiwanese democracy
• Ongoing criticism of China exercising authority over Tibet and related protest activities - because it’s not really desirable to be tagged the bully of East Asia

Approaching the task of repairing a failed relationship is daunting, but it seems like both parties have worked against all odds to find common ground, and at the very least, are open to exchange. Coordinating cross-strait permanent office locations and flights offers a very physical and visual agreement in the form of access. A willingness to come to an agreement that sends positive messages to the global community, residents and citizens, and opposition. Political heads, business men, and family members are being given a better opportunity to forge (or re-instate) ties that will help to ready these parties to make agreements on more hardline political issues in the future.

This CFR article helps tally the stance of frontrunners on US policy toward China.

  
Obama vs. McCain on:

The best engagement strategy.

BO. In a more outward assessment, O feels strongly about putting some teeth behind the words of the next American administration, and has been quoted saying:

In Asia, the emergence of an economically vibrant, more politically active China offers new opportunities for prosperity and cooperation, but also poses new challenges for the United States and our partners in the region.  It is time for the United States to take a more active role here – to build on our strong bilateral relations and informal arrangements like the Six Party talks.  

O’s focus is to establish and showcase other alliances and potential partnerships (i.e. North Korea) and bring them to the table for multi-party talks to encourage China’s hand. O approaches Sino-American relations cautiously, stating that China is “neither our enemy nor our friend,” adding “. . . we have to make sure that we have enough military-to-military contact and forge enough of a relationship with them that we can stabilize the region.”

JM. Shares a rather conservative approach with Obama, on growing the US’ relationship with China. M has reportedly backed US policy that is quoted to “hedge” against China’s growing global influence. “That doesn’t imply an effort to oppose China’s emergence as an influential power, but it does mean maintaining our military presence in East Asia, strengthening our alliance with Japan and our relations with other Asian countries, and working through groups like the APEC forum to further American interests and values.”

One China.

BO. In response to the March 2008 election of Taiwanese President Ma Ying-Jeou, O expressed hope that China would respond ”in a positive, constructive, and forward-leaning way,” and that China should mirror Taiwan’s promised non-confrontational approach, coming to the table on cross-strait relations “with good faith and progress.” Specific suggestions to improve the relationship between the two countries included the reduction of China’s military deployment in its southeast region, and affording Taiwain with “greater international space” in the World Health Organization. 

JM. Fortified the current Administration’s stance on One China, throwing his full weight behind Taiwan. In response to the island’s 08 Presidential campaign, M was quoted as celebrating this milestone as “testimony to the press freedoms, democratic process and the rule of law the Taiwanese people have worked so hard to build,” adding that the election was “a fine example for the region.”